Investors waited anxiously for the July 9 tariff deadline only to be met with a new date of August 1, and while the window for negotiations has been pushed out, tariffs are likely still coming.

President Donald Trump committed to the new date this week, stating that no new extensions would be granted. His updates included a barrage of tariff letters to more than 20 countries, with threats of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, 50% on Brazil, and 35% on Canada.

Even as investors hope that the TACO trade will save them again, market pros told Business Insider this week that there are ways to position for the coming deadline.

Here's what they're bullish and bearish on as the market barrels toward the August 1 "T-Day."

Tariffs are aimed at benefiting companies that manufacture in the US. While it's not certain to what extent factory jobs will return, there are some existing domestic industries with positive exposure to the trade war.

Trump's 50% tariff on all copper imports announced this week, for instance, should point investors toward some specific areas of the market.

For over two years, short-term Treasury yields sat above long-term ones, a deeply inverted curve that warned of trouble ahead. Normally, when the Treasury yield curve steepens after a long inversion, credit spreads widen, volatility jumps and downturns tend to follow.

But this time, credit spreads remain tight, and the VIX, the leading indicator of the broad U.S. stock market, is hovering in the mid-teens. That’s calm pricing. Add in back-and-forth tariff policies, mixed messages from the Fed and a labor market that’s starting to cool, and recession warnings are becoming louder.

In response, we’re seeing advisors move client cash into money market funds to maintain liquidity and safely capture higher short-term yields. According to the Investment Company Institute, total money market fund assets increased by $ 52.37 billion to $ 7.26 trillion for the week ended Sept. 3, up from about $ 7.03 trillion in March. (Assets briefly peaked near $ 7.24 trillion late last year, showing that flows fluctuate with rate expectations but remain historically elevated.)

We’re also seeing advisors use short-term Treasuries as ultra-safe cash equivalents while rotating into utilities to add reliable, income-oriented returns that can help cushion portfolios if bond yields rise or volatility increases.

These moves have benefited from the higher-rate climate that’s been in place since the Fed began its hikes in 2022, keeping short-term yields elevated through 2023 and 2024. But the same backdrop can turn long-term bonds into a drag if rates stay higher for longer or the Fed cuts more slowly than markets expect, even as recession pressures build.

Amid the current market uncertainty, clients are asking whether the market gains they’ve been seeing mean the worst of inflation spikes, Fed hikes and market volatility are behind us, even as headlines warn of a looming recession.

In this uncertain environment, emotions often outweigh strategy, leading clients to walk away from long-term financial plans and chase recent winners in more volatile sectors like energy or consumer discretionary, or reach for yield in long-duration bonds. Both moves can be risky, and it falls to advisors to explain why they may backfire when clients are expecting safety or steady returns.

It's easy to assume that the real skill in late-cycle markets is to find a list of "safe" holdings. In fact, it's about knowing which ones will still deliver in a downturn. For planners, the practical approach in such an environment is to organize portfolios around clear roles such as income, liquidity, defensive positioning and resilience — and then to review whether each holding justifies its place.

Framing portfolios around those core roles will help advisors build a steady base that keeps clients invested through market pullbacks. That's why it's essential to make sure each holding will continue to deliver on each of these counts (income, liquidity, defensive positioning and resilience) in case of a downturn.

Stress-test core investments across a range of scenarios, for example:

• a hypothetical 10% earnings drop,
• a 50 basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield
• or a slower-than-expected Fed cutting path.

If something no longer fits, it's the advisor's job to guide clients out of so-called safe havens and into assets that better serve today's prerecessionary climate. When it comes to income, that often means emphasizing companies with durable cash flows and reliable dividends typically found in sectors like utilities and health care that tend to maintain payouts even in downturns, giving clients a steadier income stream.

For liquidity and defensive positioning, I recommend planners lean on short-term vehicles that keep capital accessible while limiting exposure to interest-rate swings. To add resilience, broad-sector exposure in health care and consumer staples can help smooth volatility, while high-quality corporate bonds provide income with less credit risk.

Beyond those core roles, planners may look at diversification via alternatives such as real estate. REITs provide an accessible way to add real estate exposure without direct ownership, but they require more caution than core equity or bond holdings. Their sensitivity to interest-rate jumps means that while mortgage REITs have gained this year, equity REITs have lagged.

Late-cycle markets aren't static, and portfolios shouldn't be either. Roles that make perfect sense today can lose their advantage if the Fed's path changes, earnings forecasts weaken, or policy shocks hit a sensitive sector. That's why planners need a process with flexibility at its core.

Just as important is keeping clients anchored. In news cycles that trade on fear and relief in equal measure, an advisor's ability to frame moves as part of a larger strategy will keep them invested through the noise.

The bottom line: Resilience comes from matching every asset to a role, and rotating them when that role no longer fits.

Investors waited anxiously for the July 9 tariff deadline only to be met with a new date of August 1, and while the window for negotiations has been pushed out, tariffs are likely still coming.

President Donald Trump committed to the new date this week, stating that no new extensions would be granted. His updates included a barrage of tariff letters to more than 20 countries, with threats of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, 50% on Brazil, and 35% on Canada.

Even as investors hope that the TACO trade will save them again, market pros told Business Insider this week that there are ways to position for the coming deadline.

Here's what they're bullish and bearish on as the market barrels toward the August 1 "T-Day."

Tariffs are aimed at benefiting companies that manufacture in the US. While it's not certain to what extent factory jobs will return, there are some existing domestic industries with positive exposure to the trade war.

Trump's 50% tariff on all copper imports announced this week, for instance, should point investors toward some specific areas of the market.

Two major geopolitical conflicts emerged in 2025, casting a long shadow over global stability. Against this backdrop, investors are increasingly abandoning the binary distinction between “risky bets” and “safe havens.” Instead, each military flare-up is now evaluated for its potential to trigger wider systemic risk, reshaping investor attitudes and potentially causing ripple effects across markets. The implications of these evolving dynamics signal a new era where geopolitical tensions hold sway over financial landscapes, underscoring the intricate interplay between global politics and investment decisions.

The renewed conflict in Yemen and the rising tensions between India and Pakistan earlier this year caught investors by surprise. Previously, tariff wars dominated risk narratives. While these hot spots may seem to be geographically contained, they have accelerated a change in how global risks are perceived. No longer are markets split between “risky bets” and “safe havens.” Now, each military conflict, regardless of geography, is evaluated for its potential to destabilize trade routes, energy markets and monetary policy worldwide. Even the most historically stable currencies, including the U.S. dollar, appear vulnerable, while gold and, to some extent, Bitcoin are standing out as key ad hoc shelters rather than traditional safe-haven assets.

This increasingly cautious stance is justified. In today’s interconnected global economy, where volatility is the new constant, trust in market stability has become one of the most precious commodities. Markets are reacting in near real-time to geopolitical developments, gradually transforming their critical mass into a new paradigm of jungle law.

Meanwhile, despite President Trump’s diplomatic efforts, the Middle East will most likely remain in an unstable zone in 2025. Existing tensions will likely persist for two years, with the risk of escalation between 2026 and 2028. Iran, Israel, Lebanon and Syria, as direct participants in potential conflicts, will be most affected, while global markets brace for a secondary impact. A possible side effect: an increase in global energy prices and the push for higher inflation. If the situation escalates, it’s possible that the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow, 50-kilometer-wide passage and one of the world’s most critical shipping arteries—could be blocked. The Strait functions like a two-lane highway, with one lane passing through Iranian territorial waters, giving Iran both leverage and proximity. Although weak global demand might mute the long-term impact, a sudden escalation could push oil prices to $90 to $100 per barrel and tighten liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East could also disrupt natural gas supplies. The overall impact on the global gas market would be less significant than on the oil market, but about 20 percent of global LNG exports come from Qatar, whose supplies, like oil, pass through the same point of stress, the Strait of Hormuz, invoking the same kind of risks.

Ongoing regional tensions will continue to pose challenges for shipping through the Suez Canal in 2025, the most important sea route between Asia and Europe. Shipping companies will likely continue to re-route ships, preferring the longer route around southern Africa, adding two weeks to transit times and increasing freight and insurance costs. A prolonged crisis could stoke inflationary pressures globally and exacerbate the fragmentation of the global economy across regional markets.

Despite the efforts of the current U.S. administration, many hot spots of geopolitical instability worldwide remain, continuing to rattle investors. As a result, many are searching for value investing away from classic markets. Major market players caution against putting all eggs in one basket and overusing U.S. government debt as a prime passive investment. Diversification—once a platitude—is quickly becoming a necessity.

Head of the U.S. Treasury Department, Scott Bessent, recently expressed his intention to increase the national debt ceiling by mid-July. Bipartisan negotiations in 2023 led to the suspension of the debt limit until the beginning of 2025 under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. “Extraordinary measures” have delayed the budget crunch, with roughly $800 billion in cash on hand at the Federal Reserve, but that buffer may be depleted by August. Until Congress acts, the budget will continue to inject liquidity into the system, but borrowing capacity will remain restricted. Sellers are hesitant to re-enter the market, and buyers are demanding higher risk premiums, creating a precarious imbalance.

When crises hit, safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen often gain strength and attention as investors flock to them for stability. This time around, we see that this pattern does not cater to expectations, at least concerning the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index Spot has dropped nearly 9 percent year-to-date, casting doubt on the dollar’s perceived invulnerability. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are sometimes seen as the digital equivalent of gold, but their price swings can make them a riskier bet. Meanwhile, emerging market currencies can be prone to capital flight, reducing their appeal during times of financial stress.

While safe-haven currencies provide a sense of stability, they might not offer the highest returns. Commodities can be quite profitable, but they require careful selection to avoid risky situations: lithium carbonate, for instance, suddenly fell to a four-year low below $ 10,000 in March, despite previously robust demand forecasts.

Gold, by contrast, continues to be a favorite for those looking to hide from market uncertainties and increasing odds of recession. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in the first quarter of 2025 rose 16 percent year-over-year, driven by investment demand soaring 170 percent. Gold ETFs saw their strongest inflows since 2022, totaling over 226 tons as investors sought stability amid currency and equity turbulence. However, the trend reversed in early May, as gold ETF holdings fell by 1.6 tons in a single day and by more than 18 tons in two weeks, the largest outflow since November 2024. The takeaway: Even safe-haven assets are now subject to whiplash as sentiment shifts rapidly. Although gold remains a sensitive indicator of global stress, investors are deploying it more strategically, using it for income and timing market cycles, not just as a panic exit.

Traditional financial hubs like the U.K., U.S. Japan and Australia continue to attract stable asset investments, while China is leading the charge in land and development site investments. The global financial scene is becoming increasingly interconnected and dynamic, with emerging economies stepping up to influence investment trends. In North America and EMEA, multifamily real estate is holding strong, and industrial and logistics investments are picking up steam worldwide. By 2026, sovereign wealth funds are set to emerge as a significant force. These funds are crucial in reshaping investment patterns, especially in emerging markets, as they drive domestic investments, bolster supply chains and promote self-sufficiency. Countries with stable political climates, sound fiscal policies and strong regulatory frameworks remain key magnets for capital. The UAE is setting an example, establishing itself as a global financial hub through initiatives like the Abu Dhabi Global Market and the Dubai International Financial Centre.

At the same time, financial power is shifting. Western dominance is fading as new financial hubs gain traction across India and Southeast Asia. Traditional financial centers are now facing stiff competition from decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and digital asset exchanges, which are changing the game for investment strategies by disrupting lending and borrowing norms and challenging legacy institutions.

Amid this complex environment, gold remains the last resort shelter for those looking to protect their capital from entering the uncharted waters. Investors are learning to use it with precision as just one piece of a broader, more flexible strategy for navigating an era defined by conflict, fragmentation and uncertainty.

In spring 2025, two, at first glance, regional cases, the escalation in Yemen and rising tensions between India and Pakistan, sent tremors through global markets. It was not because of their direct economic footprint but because they signalled what investors fear most: systemic risks. Today, every geopolitical turmoil can potentially become a macroeconomic wave.

The days when investors could divide the globe into “hot spots” and “safe havens” are gone. In the age of global anxiety, where the financial system reacts in milliseconds to any kind of upheaval, assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, or commodities are no longer just hedges but lifeboats amidst growing uncertainty.

In today’s world, where any local conflict can shake global markets, gold has proven itself as the most trusted hedge for investors. Since early May, demand for it has surged, with the price rising nearly 8% in just one week. After reaching $3,400, the price pulled back to around $3,100 as a signal of optimism over the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions. But the relief was a short-lived one. As soon as broader uncertainty returned, the gold price rebounded to test the $3,350–$3,400 range again with the aim to break through the $3,500 psychological barrier.

This demand is structural. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in Q1 2025 has reached its highest first-quarter level since 2016. Investment demand also surged by 170% year-over-year. But the rally is driven more by prudence than panic.

What does it mean? A strategic reallocation of the capital. Institutional investors, from European pension funds to U.S. insurance companies, aren’t just reacting. They’re repositioning for long-term resilience. Retail investors also don’t lag, as April has seen the largest monthly inflow into gold ETFs in three years. Still, as the gold neared the $3,500 threshold in early May, some investors locked in profits, leading to modest outflows. It’s a natural phase rather than a full-fledged reversal.

So, this correction is a shift from reactive hoarding to strategic hedging. Gold remains a barometer of fear, but its buyers are now long-term risk managers rather than short-term alarmists.

As gold rises on fear, the U.S. dollar climbs on trust. The greenback continues to outperform peers like the euro, yen, and pound, partly thanks to a recalibration of risk appetite but largely due to confidence in the Federal Reserve’s strategy. Still, recently, the dollar demonstrated its first weekly drop against other currencies amid rising concerns about worsening U.S. fiscal health. However, it might be referred to as short-term uncertainty rather than a long-lasting trend.

Everyone knows markets hate surprises, which is why Fed decisions matter more than ever. Jerome Powell’s steady, no-drama approach with a pause in rate hikes and no expected cuts before early 2026 is a kind of anchor for investors. Combine that with new U.S. trade deals with the UK and China, and it’s no wonder the dollar continues to hold firm. That is why investors view it as the "currency of trust."

All in all, the current dynamics in the era of uncertainty indicate that trust is the defining asset, not yield. And the U.S. dollar, underpinned by policy and institutional credibility, remains the world’s "benchmark" for trust.

Traditional risk assets, such as oil, struggle to deliver confidence. A couple of weeks ago, oil markets remained quite indifferent to geopolitical tensions, and this was a break from the past when even minor Gulf turmoils once sent Brent prices soaring. Today, after Donald Trump announced 50% EU tariffs, prices dropped by nearly 2%, setting their first weekly decline for three weeks.

The recent stagnation in oil prices means it no longer serves as a reliable barometer for geopolitical risk, and this is correct, even despite the current situation. Capital is still consolidating into assets that are not just liquid but enduring, with long histories of surmounting crises.

Moreover, oil’s diminishing sensitivity to conflicts reflects broader changes in global energy dynamics. The accelerated transition to renewables, the buildup of strategic reserves, and the diversification of supply chains have collectively reduced the market’s reliance on oil as a geopolitical barometer. As energy resilience increasingly stems from flexibility rather than fossil fuel dominance, oil’s influence on macroeconomic sentiment continues to decline.

Overall, in 2025, a deep shift in investment psychology is taking place. Once, the goal was to maximise returns; now, it’s about minimising vulnerability. This isn’t merely a risk-off phase but a structural evolution in capital strategy. When there is systemic unpredictability, markets value durability more than dynamism.

Gold is no longer a panic button but a long-term allocation, and the dollar isn’t just a defensive play; it’s what defines smart capital today. Even oil’s declining responsiveness to geopolitical events means that markets now value adaptability, not dependence on a single commodity.

For investors, the lesson is clear: resilience is the new alpha. This means they should embrace assets that can withstand the next political flare-up, market misfire, or economic turbulence. Those who can navigate markets effectively and allocate accordingly will not just preserve capital. They will own the narrative of a new investment era.

When you think about investing in a company before it goes public, what first comes to mind? Risky startup gambles? For many, the IPO, the moment a company hits the public market, is still seen as only an “official” chance to get in on the action. But what if the real growth happens before that moment?

According to Nasdaq data, the average company today spends more than a decade and reaches a valuation of more than $1 billion before it even files an IPO. This means that much of its value creation happens behind the scenes (1). That is the realm of pre-IPO investing. It offers savvy investors a chance to participate in some of the promising growth stories before they become headline news.

So, let’s disclose the fundamentals of pre-IPO investing, explore why it’s drawing more attention from industry professionals, and point out the risks and valuation puzzles that come with it.

It’s obvious that when a company launches an initial public offering, it opens its doors to public investors by listing shares on a stock exchange. This is typically the final stage of the investment cycle, where shares become publicly tradable and ownership moves from private hands to the open market. At the IPO stage, investors buy stocks that are already liquid, meaning they can sell or trade them freely.

But there is pre-IPO investing that happens before this moment, in a less formal and often more private stage. It refers to investing in companies that are still private but preparing for an IPO in the future.

Evidently, unlike IPO shares, pre-IPO ones usually aren’t tradable on public exchanges yet. Investors either hold them until the company goes public or exit through later private sales or secondary markets.

In its core essence, pre-IPO offers investors a unique chance to get in on companies after they’ve already moved beyond the risky early startup phase and before their value is fully recognised by the public markets. By giving this opportunity, the company strives to commercialise its product, showing real business traction, yet hasn’t completed the strict process of readiness to face the public market.

The key difference? IPO investors buy shares in a company that is fully market-tested and regulated, while pre-IPO investors take on more risks (but also the potential for higher returns) by stepping in earlier, often at lower valuations. Pre-IPO sits squarely between venture capital and public equity, offering real opportunities for those who understand its complexities.

The IPO stage, when a company finally goes public, tends to attract a flood of investor interest. And this surge often leads to one common frustration: low allocation. Imagine applying to buy $100 worth of shares but ending up with just $2. This scenario is typical during hot IPO waves, such as the one that happened before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pre-IPO investing allows investors to avoid this bottleneck. Due to this, investors can often secure a larger allocation of shares, strategically gaining a more substantial stake in a company’s growth. This early access can transform into potentially greater returns because, as a rule, pre-IPO valuations, come in lower valuations than IPO prices.

Still, benefits never come alone, and they are in most cases accompanied by risks. Companies at this stage may lack the stability and transparency expected of firms that are already publicly listed. Financial reports might be less robust, and business performance could fluctuate.

Anyway, for investors willing to accept these risks, pre-IPO provides a compelling reward: the chance to participate in growth before its value becomes fully priced by the public markets. In some well-known cases, companies with already high private valuations saw their market cap grow by more than 350 per cent (from about $46 billion to more than $250 billion) within the first year post-IPO (2). Pre-IPO investing lets the investor enter an established business at a way more attractive price point – before it fully converts into a public market asset.

For companies approaching an IPO, the pre-IPO phase is an important dress rehearsal. Yet it’s also the stage where many businesses stumble, often in ways that can quietly undermine investors’ returns.

The most common mistake is mispricing. A company may occasionally launch a pre-IPO round during market volatility periods, elevated interest rates, or sector downturns. This makes it harder to attract investments or may even lock in an unfavourable valuation just before the debut.

Failures in roadmapping also take place. Many firms fail to clearly define what kind of businesses they’re building – high-growth tech disruptor or stable cash-flow generator? Investors need clarity: why this company, why now, and what’s the path to liquidity? Allocation interest drops faster when management can’t explain investment cases with precision.

Operational transparency is another blind spot. While there is no full market scrutiny yet, investors expect solid data. Sloppy reporting, unverified performance metrics, or vague financial disclosures erode trust and credibility. Openness and transparency are key currencies at this stage. Savvy investors should request detailed cap table breakdowns and pre-IPO term sheets, as well as understand liquidation preferences to estimate downside risk. These documents help clarify ownership dilution, control structures, and exit priorities.

Eventually, a lack of investor communication strategy can sink even the most promising rounds. Companies that treat the pre-IPO phase as a transactional funding exercise, instead of a long-term relationship-building process, often misfire. Investors want responsiveness, updates, and a sense of shared strategic vision.

Pre-IPO investing isn’t just a high-risk venture for thrill-seeking investors; it’s a crucial segment of modern capital markets. For professionals who know how to assess timing, valuation dynamics, and execution risk, it presents the value long before the public markets catch on.

In a market where early insights beat late reaction, those who approach the pre-IPO phase with discipline will be the ones writing tomorrow’s success stories.